Hong Kong bought its own stock market. Malaysia shut its borders to money. In private, Washington was closer to them than its speeches were. Who paid, and what they built next.
Thank you Faraj, that is kind. The credit belongs to people I have never met: whoever filed the classification appeal in 2013, and the panel and archivists who released the two calls in 2015. "Sometimes" is the right word. The line about keeping people "jollied up" waited seventeen years to the day, and it would still be in a box if nobody had asked. My part was only to read it and set it beside what was said in public the same month.
An excellent review of government intervention against the market madness during the Asian financial crisis. Only the Hong Kong SAR and Malaysia survived the brutal speculative attack during the crisis. Thanks.
Thank you, Professor Rahman, both for this and for quoting the piece to your readers. Coming from a professor of accountancy who has also sat on the regulator's side of the table, that means a great deal.
You are right that these were the two who stood their ground, and history has been kinder to both than the verdicts of 1998. In the last two weeks of August, Hong Kong spent about HK$120 billion buying its own stocks and futures. Milton Friedman called it insane. A year later the government began selling the shares back to its own citizens through the Tracker Fund, and the HKMA puts the paper gain at nearly HK$100 billion.
Malaysia closed its capital account on 1 September and pegged the ringgit at 3.80. Moody's downgraded it within days and MSCI dropped it from its indices. Yet it recovered at least as fast as Thailand and Korea under their IMF programmes, and the peg held until 2005.
Two governments broke the rules, and both were proved right on the price. That is rare enough to be worth remembering.
I have been following your Anthropic piece with interest. Writing the classification rules down before the filing lands is exactly the right discipline.
Unbelievably qualified investigative work, thank you. Fortunately, what happens behind closed doors does see the light sometimes.
Thank you Faraj, that is kind. The credit belongs to people I have never met: whoever filed the classification appeal in 2013, and the panel and archivists who released the two calls in 2015. "Sometimes" is the right word. The line about keeping people "jollied up" waited seventeen years to the day, and it would still be in a box if nobody had asked. My part was only to read it and set it beside what was said in public the same month.
An excellent review of government intervention against the market madness during the Asian financial crisis. Only the Hong Kong SAR and Malaysia survived the brutal speculative attack during the crisis. Thanks.
Thank you, Professor Rahman, both for this and for quoting the piece to your readers. Coming from a professor of accountancy who has also sat on the regulator's side of the table, that means a great deal.
You are right that these were the two who stood their ground, and history has been kinder to both than the verdicts of 1998. In the last two weeks of August, Hong Kong spent about HK$120 billion buying its own stocks and futures. Milton Friedman called it insane. A year later the government began selling the shares back to its own citizens through the Tracker Fund, and the HKMA puts the paper gain at nearly HK$100 billion.
Malaysia closed its capital account on 1 September and pegged the ringgit at 3.80. Moody's downgraded it within days and MSCI dropped it from its indices. Yet it recovered at least as fast as Thailand and Korea under their IMF programmes, and the peg held until 2005.
Two governments broke the rules, and both were proved right on the price. That is rare enough to be worth remembering.
I have been following your Anthropic piece with interest. Writing the classification rules down before the filing lands is exactly the right discipline.